Alexa von Tobel May Be the Next Suze Orman






(Corrects description of von Tobel’s degree)


Alexa von Tobel walked out of a blizzard and into her Greenwich Village office space on Feb. 8, brewed a cup of tea, and recited a list of her appearances in 2013. There was the design conference panel in Munich, a speech to the William Morris Endeavor staff in California, a Today show spot in New York—each time, she spoke on the topic of personal finance. In the past eight days, Von Tobel says, she’s been to four cities, and after the weekend she’s due to guest-teach a class at the University of Maryland. “That’s sort of a normal week in my life, just to give you a sense,” she says, bobbing the tea bag.






Von Tobel, 29, is the founder and chief executive officer of LearnVest, a four-year-old startup that in September became a registered investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission—the latest personal finance site to go beyond offering simple budgeting tools to advising clients directly on what to do with their money. Services such as Mint.com have become popular with features that track users’ purchases and spit out pie charts on retirement progress. LearnVest offers the same features, but now clients who pay a setup fee (as much as $ 399) and then $ 19 a month can call or e-mail the staff of certified financial planners for personalized guidance. The advisers don’t recommend specific stocks or mutual funds, but they will work with customers to tailor their strategies on portfolio balancing, retirement, estate planning, and other topics. The company, which declines to say how many paid customers it has, says the site has a total user base of a few hundred thousand. Advisers earn a flat salary, with bonuses tied to customer satisfaction.


At the same time that banks are rediscovering wealth management for millionaire clients as a lucrative, low-risk business, a handful of startups are attempting to broaden the category to include the not-quite-so-rich, with assets in the six figures or less. Von Tobel’s firm faces some formidable competition, including Personal Capital, the brainchild of former PayPal (EBAY) and Intuit (INTU) CEO Bill Harris, and NestWise, backed by LPL Financial (LPLA), an organization of some 13,000 financial advisers managing $ 373 billion in assets.


In the crowded personal finance category, LearnVest initially drew attention thanks to Von Tobel’s shrewd decision to focus on women. It helped distinguish the site, attracted investors, and made Von Tobel into a rising media star as an expert on women, budgets, and the psychology of spending and saving. As a result, sometimes it’s difficult to tell which is the more successful product, LearnVest or Von Tobel herself.


A former trader at Morgan Stanley (MS), Von Tobel quit Harvard Business School to start LearnVest in 2008. Despite the recession, she lined up seed funding from three high-ranking Goldman Sachs Group (GS) veterans who had formed Circle Financial Group, an organization of women investors. One of the founders, Ann Kaplan, had led a Goldman Sachs group that concentrated on women clients; she’s now LearnVest’s chairman. Subsequent funding came in two rounds from Accel Partners, for a total of slightly less than $ 25 million.


Along the way, Von Tobel has appeared on a torrent of TV shows and magazine lists—Inc.’s “30 Under 30: America’s Coolest Young Entrepreneurs,” Vanity Fair’s “Next Establishment” index, Marie Claire’s “18 Women Changing the World.” Random House will publish her first book, a guide to getting one’s financial house in order, later this year, and a monthly money column begins in the next issue of Cosmopolitan. She met Cosmo Editor in Chief Joanna Coles at an event at Ruth’s Chris Steak House (RUTH) in New York, answering audience questions about the psychology of spending. “At the end of it, there was a line down the stairs of the restaurant,” Coles says. “When you talk to her, it’s a bit like talking to a Roman candle, just fully on fire, and all sorts of interesting colors are coming out of her.”


For a startup still getting off the ground, and now employing financial planners across the country, the free publicity is invaluable; that’s equally true for Von Tobel. If the company goes bust, the business of being her is still well capitalized. “Clearly she should have her own television show,” Coles says. “And she’d be very good advising big financial companies on how to approach women.”


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LearnVest’s board and formal advisers include executives with ties to Goldman Sachs, Omnicom Group (OMC), and dot-coms such as EHarmony, the Huffington Post, and DailyCandy. “Because of her connections, starting with Kaplan, she was one step, two steps closer to bookers, producers, editors who would put her in magazines,” says adviser Betsy Morgan, president of TheBlaze, Glenn Beck’s website. Von Tobel approached Morgan when she was CEO of the Huffington Post. “I thought she was enormously strategic,” Morgan says. “ ‘How do I think about getting brand awareness, how do I think about media, how do I think about PR?’ It’s really nice to be able to say to your mom, ‘Hey, I’m on the Today show’—but it’s more meaningful to say, ‘I picked up X number of customers.’ ”


Von Tobel grew up in Florida and graduated from Harvard College (her thesis was magna cum laude plus) in 2006, during a period that produced a burst of entrepreneurialism among women there. Plus, unusual similarity in first names: Alexa Hirschfeld launched Paperless Post, a classier Evite, in 2008, and Alexis Maybank and Alexandra Wilkis Wilson co-founded Gilt Groupe, the luxury e-tailer, in 2007. In New York’s small venture capital sphere, their cluster of beau monde enterprisers is even tinier. Von Tobel’s wedding this spring will feature a Paperless Post bridesmaid and the co-founder of Dannijo, a jewelry line that does its marketing on social media, as maid of honor.


Even competitors are impressed with LearnVest. “They’re a comrade in arms, they’re another of the couple of players that are trying to use connected tech to change the way financial advice and financial services are delivered,” says Personal Capital’s Harris. The challenge for LearnVest now is whether the safe, universal guidelines it has been dispensing to users—pay off high-interest debt first, save up an emergency fund—can translate into individually tailored advice on taxes and how to balance a mixture of stocks and bonds. Von Tobel thinks the market is large: Ninety-nine percent of Americans have less than $ 1 million in assets, she is fond of saying, and few feel they have a source of reliable, independent financial counsel. “I’ve never sat across from someone who hasn’t been like, ‘My mom needs this,’ or ‘Wow, my husband and I need to get this immediately,’ ” Von Tobel says.


She recently passed the 10-hour CFP exam and three-hour Series 65 exam—the latter a Financial Industry Regulatory Authority test that qualifies her to dispense paid investment advice. Von Tobel says she took 15 calls in the previous week from LearnVest customers, ranging from the well-off to some in dire straits. One memorable conversation came with a user who had lost her job and wanted to create a financial plan before breaking the news to her family. “This is a genuine, genuine passion, and so this isn’t an upbeat persona that I have to really put on,” says Von Tobel. “The world could fall apart around me, our money could go away, and I would still be sitting here doing the exact same thing.”


The bottom line: With LearnVest, Von Tobel is creating a financial advisory service for the masses—and her own brand as a media star.


Businessweek.com — Top News





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Bomb kills 64 in Pakistan’s Quetta






QUETTA, Pakistan (Reuters) – Sixty-four people including school children died on Saturday in a bomb attack carried out by extremists from Pakistan’s Sunni Muslim majority, police said.


A spokesman for Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, a Sunni group, claimed responsibility for the bomb in Quetta, which caused casualties in the town’s main bazaar, a school and a computer center. Police said most of the victims were Shi’ites.






Burned school bags and books were strewn around.


“The explosion was caused by an improvised explosive device fitted to a motorcycle,” said Wazir Khan Nasir, deputy inspector general of police in Quetta.


“This is a continuation of terrorism against Shi’ites.”


“I saw many bodies of women and children,” said an eyewitness at a hospital. “At least a dozen people were burned to death by the blast.”


Most Western intelligence agencies have regarded the Pakistani Taliban and al Qaeda as the gravest threat to nuclear-armed Pakistan, a strategic U.S. ally.


But Pakistani law enforcement officials say Lashkar-e-Jhangvi has become a formidable force.


TENSIONS


Last month the group said it carried out a bombing in Quetta that killed nearly 100 people, one of Pakistan’s worst sectarian attacks. Thousands of Shi’ites protested in several cities after that attack.


Pakistani intelligence officials say extremist groups, led by Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, have escalated their bombings and shootings of Shi’ites to trigger violence that would pave the way for a Sunni theocracy in U.S.-allied Pakistan.


More than 400 Shi’ites were killed in Pakistan last year, many by hitmen or bombs, and the perpetrators are almost never caught. Some hardline Shi’ite groups have hit back by killing Sunni clerics.


The growing sectarian violence has hurt the credibility of the government, which has already faced criticism ahead of elections due in May for its inability to tackle corruption and economic stagnation.


The schism between Sunnis and Shi’ites developed after the Prophet Muhammad died in 632 when his followers could not agree on a successor.


Emotions over the issue are highly potent even today, pushing some countries, including Iraq five years ago, to the brink of civil war.


Pakistan is nowhere near that stage but officials worry that Sunni extremist groups have succeeded in dramatically ratcheting up tensions and provoking revenge attacks in their bid to destabilize the country.


(Reporting by Jibran Ahmed; Writing by Michael Georgy; Editing by Stephen Powell)


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Kate Upton says body shut down after Antarctic bikini shoot






(Reuters) – Swimsuit model Kate Upton said on Tuesday her body shut down after she posed in a skimpy bikini in Antarctica for Sports Illustrated magazine.


Upton, wearing only a white bikini bottom and an unzipped white parka, was picked as the cover girl for the annual Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue, unveiled on Monday, for the second consecutive year.






“It was freezing,” Upton, 20, told NBC’s morning TV show “Today” on Tuesday. “I’m from Florida, so it wasn’t easy for me.


“When I came back, I was losing my hearing and eyesight. My body was shutting down because it was working so hard to keep me warm.”


Upton joins celebrity models including Elle Macpherson, Christie Brinkley and Tyra Banks to appear more than once on the swimsuit issue‘s cover.


M.J. Day, a senior editor for Sports Illustrated, told Reuters that Upton braved temperatures as low as 24 degrees Fahrenheit (-4 Celsius) and wind chills as low as -20 Fahrenheit (-29 Celsius).


“We should name a passageway after her down there,” said Day, who accompanied Upton on the frigid shoot. “She braved six days in a bikini while we were head-to-toe in jackets … No one will ever accuse her of being a whiny model, ever.”


This year’s 17 models were part of photo shoots that stretched across all seven continents.


(Reporting by Eric Kelsey in Los Angeles; Editing by Jill Serjeant and Mohammad Zargham)


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Pistorius, girlfriend were planning future – uncle






JOHANNESBURG, Feb 16 (Reuters) – South African athlete Oscar Pistorius was planning a future with his girlfriend Reeva Steenkamp, who he is accused of murdering, his uncle said on Saturday.


“They had plans together and Oscar was happier in his private life than he had been for a long time,” his uncle Anthony Pistorius said in a statement.






Pistorius has been charged with the premeditated murder of Steenkamp on Thursday. He denies it.


(Reporting by Ed Cropley; Editing by Angus MacSwan)


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Wireless Spectrum is Invisible River of Gold








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Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) — Spectrum is one of the most important parts of your digital life that you probably know very little about. So, what is it? And why are wireless carriers so obsessed with it? Bloomberg Businessweek’s Sam Grobart explains.










Businessweek.com — Top News





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Havana restores monument to victims of USS Maine






HAVANA (AP) — It was a little before 10 p.m. that February night in 1898 when a fiery explosion roiled the normally calm waters of Havana Harbor, blowing out windows in the city and sinking the USS Maine to the bottom of the bay, just the mast and some twisted metal wreckage left to poke above the waves.


Havana‘s monument to the 266 U.S. sailors who died that night was dedicated 27 years later as a tribute to lasting Cuban-American friendship, a thank-you for Washington‘s help in shedding the yoke of Spanish colonial rule, which was known for its cruelty.






The years since have been unkind to the twin-columned monument, and to U.S.-Cuba ties. But while relations between Washington and Havana remain in deep freeze, the monument, at least, is now getting a facelift.


The restoration project is fraught with symbolism, with the monument’s scars telling the story of more than a century of shifts in the complex relationship and changing interpretations of the marble structure.


“Of the monuments in Havana, that’s one that really is struggling to contain all of these different historical episodes,” said Timothy Hyde, a historian of Cuban architecture at Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design. “It doesn’t just symbolize any longer this single moment of the sinking of the Maine. It symbolizes all these periodic moments of antipathy and hostility and challenges between the two nation-states.”


Soon after the USS Maine’s suddenly sank off the coast of this Caribbean capital 115 years ago Friday, the United States accused Spanish colonial authorities of responsibility in the blast.


“Remember the Maine!” became a rallying cry in the States, and after the U.S. victory in the three-month Spanish-American war, Spain ceded control over Cuba, Puerto Rico, the Philippines and Guam.


The Maine monument was inaugurated in 1925 and bears the names of all 266 sailors. Two statues standing shoulder-to-shoulder at the base represent a maternal America guiding the maiden Cuba into independence.


Words etched into the marble quote an 1898 U.S. congressional resolution recognizing a free Cuba, and the massive bronze eagle that long capped the monument faced due north to symbolize Washington’s promise to return home after helping the island break from Spain.


“To me it signifies a legacy of loyalty … friendship between two peoples,” said Julio Dominguez Santos, the monument’s night watchman for 17 years.


But things didn’t work out as that earlier Congress had hoped.


Many Cubans resented the 1901 Platt Amendment, which said Washington retained the right to intervene militarily as a condition of ending the postwar U.S. occupation.


The U.S. did in fact intervene several times, and American business and mafia gangs came to dominate many aspects of the island in the run-up to the 1959 revolution — leading many Cubans to feel like the eagle had never flown back north.


Soon after Fidel Castro’s rebels marched victoriously into Havana, the tense marriage rapidly careened toward divorce and diplomatic ties were severed in 1961. Following the doomed, U.S.-backed Bay of Pigs invasion months later, the more than 3-ton eagle was ripped from the monument during an anti-American protest and splintered into pieces.


“The eagle was torn down after the triumph of the revolution because it’s the symbol of imperialism, the United States, and the revolution ended all that,” said Ernesto Moreno, a 77-year-old Havana resident who remembers waking up one day to see the statue gone. “I found it to be a very good thing, and I think most Cubans agreed at the time.”


Castro’s government added a new inscription to the base of the broken monument alleging the Maine victims had been “sacrificed by imperialist greed in its zeal to seize the island of Cuba,” a reference to speculation that the U.S. deliberately blew up the Maine to justify a war against Spain.


Historians say the explosion was probably an accidental ignition of the Maine’s own munitions, but the conspiracy theory still commonly circulates in Cuba.


The Communist Party newspaper Granma, for example, has written in the past that the Maine victims were “immolated to serve as a pretext for American intervention that in 1898 prevented the island from gaining true independence” — ignoring the fact that Cuban rebels had failed to oust the Spanish on their own for decades.


A Granma article published on Friday’s anniversary was less certain, but still said American self-sabotage “cannot be ruled out, given the interest among the more aggressive imperialist circles in instigating war.”


The Maine eagle’s head was mysteriously delivered to Swiss diplomats, who had agreed to act as protectors of U.S. property in Cuba. Today it hangs in a conference room at the U.S. Interests Section, which Washington maintains in Havana instead of an embassy.


After relations were partially re-established in 1977, longtime foreign service officer Wayne Smith, who had been in Havana in 1961, returned and arranged to see the body, wings and tail, which are currently out of sight in a musty storage room of the Havana City History Museum.


“I have been the faithful custodian of the body,” City Historian Eusebio Leal, told The Associated Press. “Smith told me that until the body and the head are reunited, there won’t be good relations between Cuba and the United States.”


U.S. diplomats also possess the monument’s original eagle, toppled by a hurricane in 1926. Since 1954 that earlier bird has presided over the immaculate gardens of the Interests Section chief’s official residence.


A plaque at the base calls the eagle “a symbol of the enduring friendship” between Cuba and the U.S.


“I’m just happy we have it. I don’t know how it got here. Somebody got ahold of it, saw it and gave it to us,” said John Caulfield, the Interests Section chief since 2011.


Coincidentally, the U.S. State Department recently sent two specialists down to repair the first eagle, which was cracked and tarnished green.


Like many structures in Havana, the monument on the seafront Malecon boulevard had become seedy from decades of neglect. Marble lion heads were damaged or looted, and the fountains were used as trash receptacles by passers-by.


The repair seems to be part of a general restoration of hundreds of monuments by Leal’s office, unrelated to any change in U.S.-Cuban ties.


Workers in blue jumpers recently removed scaffolding that shrouded the columns for months, revealing gleaming-white marble scrubbed clean of grime. Gone are the rusty stains beneath the two 10-inch guns that were salvaged from the Maine. The statues are a lustrous bronze again after corrosive salt air turned them bright green.


Leal said his office intends to finish remaining tasks such as getting the fountains working and re-landscaping two adjacent plazas in the coming months.


But amid the ongoing renovation, a return to the monument’s original spirit of friendship seems unlikely — at least for now.


“Certainly we have as much wish for that to be true today as we did at the time,” Caulfield said of the inscription declaring that Cuba has the right to be free. “I hope that we and the Cubans will see a new relationship with the United States that allows those words to be true.”


Leal said he also hopes for warmer ties, but first Washington must end the 51-year economic embargo and abolish “anti-Cuban” laws.


Can he envision a bronze eagle resuming its perch someday atop the monument?


“On the occasion of a friendly visit by a U.S. president,” Leal said. “I wish President Obama would be the one to do that.”


___


Associated Press writer Anne-Marie Garcia in Havana contributed to this report.


___


Peter Orsi on Twitter: www.twitter.com/Peter_Orsi


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Oscar’s oldest nominee, Emmanuelle Riva, on “Amour”: it’s a gift in the last stage of my life






LOS ANGELES (TheWrap.com) – The life of an artist is full of surprises, and none has been bigger for French actress Emanuelle Riva than the one that has come late in life. The response has been overwhelming to her performance in this year’s meditative “Amour,” which brought her the first Oscar nomination of her career – and makes her the oldest Best Actress nominee ever, at 85.


Riva was best known previously for her role in the 1959 French New Wave classic, “Hiroshima Mon Amour,” directed by Alain Resnais. In Michael Haneke‘s “Amour,” she plays a wife declining inexorably toward death, losing her physical and intellectual grasp.






The loving husband who cares for her is played by Jean-Louis Trintignant, whose breakout role was playing Brigitte Bardot’s young suitor in the original version of “And God Created Woman.”


After a lifetime of steady roles in France, Riva has spent the better part of the past year responding to global interview requests and accepting accolades, including a New York Film Critics Circle award in January that led to her first trip ever to New York. The Oscars will be her first trip to Los Angeles. It will also take place on her 86th birthday.


TheWrap spoke by phone to Riva from her family home in Les Vosges, a region in eastern France.


Thank you for making the time to speak to us.


Well, I am horribly tired. I don’t have a moment to rest. They don’t leave me in peace. But, my word, I said I’d do it.


Have you been surprised by the response to “Amour”?


It surprises us, this much success. I didn’t expect so much interest. But it’s not only to me, it’s to the film, those who worked in the film. We are very happy for this huge public response.


How did Michael Haneke approach you about doing the role?


It’s not me who decided. It’s Haneke who decided. When a director like him chooses someone, he is so precise. He knew me from “Hiroshima Mon Amour.” I was 30 years old. He hadn’t seen me since that time. And he wanted to meet me. It was done very classically. A director looks for an actor, he has a vision, we met.


And then what happened?


We did a rehearsal with the scene in the kitchen – when she begins to depart, to go elsewhere. the regard that’s no longer there. The absence. It’s terrible. He looked at it closely. He wanted to see me on the screen. He said I touched him deeply in this scene.


What did you think of the role when you read it?


When I read the script I found it so extraordinary.


I had the profound certitude that I could do it. I felt that at that moment in my life as an actress, I was immediately capable of doing it. If he didn’t give me the role, I would have been so sad.


Were you afraid of confronting this theme of mortality?


Afraid? No, not at all. Why would I be afraid? This role presents the subject of the film that touches each of us, every human on the planet. As an actress, it’s so exciting to be engaged in a role like this. I would never have felt fear for this. If an actress is afraid, she should head for the door right away.


I was so happy in the work. Every day, every day. Two months of work. It was such happiness-a feeling of complete fullness. Of life, of death, of love. I never lost the excitement of the work. I was so infinitely happy during this shoot. So serious, but it wasn’t sad at all.


What was it like creating that intimacy with Jean-Louis Trintignant?


I’d met him in Rome many years ago when we were young, but I don’t know him well. This is the heart of our work. We meet other people we don’t know, and immediately we are in complete intimacy. I didn’t do anything. I just was there, and him also.


We started with the kitchen scene after the concert at the Champs Elysee Theatre. I seem to recall that scene. We were facing each other at the table as if we’d been for years. I just lived it. This is what’s so marvelous. When I don’t know someone, I’d say I have more freedom as an actress. Sometimes we surprise ourselves, but one can surprise the director with how deep you can go. Haneke – he is fantastic – he was the music of the film.


What direction did Haneke give you?


There was one direction, not 36. From there we had a lot of freedom. He’s not tyrannical. His direction was very simple, very rigorous. We were doing a scene and he said, “It’s very nice – very sweet, very tender – but it’s too tender. No sentimentality. From here on in, no sentimentality.” This was the key that opened the horizon of the film. Once I heard that, it became much more clear. I said, “I get it.” This husband and wife each have very strong personalities. But it is not expressed in sentimentality.


How did you react to the Oscar nomination?


I found out in New York, I was there for the critics circle award. The 10th of January, early morning. My neighbors who help me when I travel shouted for joy. I was barely awake. They were screaming, “You’re nominated!” I stayed very calm. I got up and said, “I’m not nominated.” Of course I was very happy.


And how do you feel about coming to the Oscars?


I am very calm in the face of all of this. I am 85 years old. I am not going to flop about like a fish. What makes me nervous is these hours on the plane. Frankly, it seems like a hell of a journey to me. It’s so long. But I will do things to the end. I will fall in someone’s arms if I need to.


This adventure, this gift, in the last stage of my life – it’s not easy to measure up – but it’s the exact moment in my life when I could do it. Before would have been too early. Later might have been too late. But it’s a great treasure to participate in this film.


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Catholic bishops ask Congress for contraceptives reprieve






WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Roman Catholic bishops stepped up their battle against President Obama‘s contraceptives policy on Friday by urging Congress to use its fiscal debate to free religious employers from a mandate requiring insurance coverage for birth control.


In a letter to all 535 members of Congress, Archbishop William Lori of Baltimore suggested two provisions to extend existing federal conscience protections to the contraceptives mandate and strengthen the ability of opponents to seek vindication in federal court.






“The federal government‘s respect for believers and people of conscience no longer measures up to the treatment Americans have a right to expect from their elected representatives,” wrote Lori, who chairs the Ad Hoc Committee on Religious Liberty of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops.


“I urge you in the strongest terms possible to incorporate the provisions … in the upcoming legislative proposals to fund the federal government,” Lori added.


The conference also plans to send out an action alert via email and text message calling on supporters across the country to visit local congressional offices next week when lawmakers are home on break.


Obama’s 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act requires employers to provide health insurance coverage through group coverage plans for all contraceptives approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, including the so-called “morning after” pill.


The archbishop’s letter underscored a growing sense of urgency among church leaders over the birth control coverage rules that are due to take effect on August 1 for religiously affiliated employers including universities, hospitals and charities.


The bishops have tried several times to get Congress to act over the past year, amid numerous protests and more than 40 lawsuits by religious groups and employers. But Lori’s letter marks their first attempt to use the debates over deficit reduction, the debt limit and government funding.


“To many people, this looks like the main must-pass vehicle going through Congress this year,” said Richard Doerflinger, associate director of the conference’s Secretariat of Pro-Life Activities.


The new healthcare law contains an exemption for houses of worship but has come under attack from Catholic leaders, Protestant Evangelicals and other social conservatives who also want religious nonprofit organizations and religious business owners exempted.


The Catholic Church regards contraception as a sin and birth control products like the morning-after pill a form of abortion. In a development that could intensify the debate, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control reported this week that growing numbers of American women are using the morning-after pill.


The Obama administration offered its opponents a compromise on February 1 by proposing new regulations that would allow religious employers to avoid paying for birth control coverage for their workers. Instead, insurers would provide the benefits free through separate coverage plans.


The president of the bishops conference, Cardinal Timothy Dolan of New York, rejected the plan as inadequate last week.


Doerflinger said church efforts to get favorable language on contraceptives included in funding legislation follows a congressional precedent for including conscience provisions in appropriations bills in the U.S. House of Representatives.


But he acknowledged that the bishops could face an uphill fight on Capitol Hill. “The pressure everywhere is for just trying to address the money issues,” he said. “That’s why we need to remind members of Congress that these issues of fundamental rights are also pending and won’t go away.”


(Reporting by David Morgan; Editing by Ros Krasny and Paul Simao)


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Q&A: Currency the latest threat to global economy






LONDON (AP) — The world economy faces a new threat. Instead of a banking collapse or too much debt, fears are growing that countries are using their currencies as an economic weapon.


History suggests that’s never a good thing.






If too many countries try to weaken their currencies for economic gain — sparking a “currency war” — that could stifle business confidence and investment, sow turmoil in financial markets and derail a fragile global economy.


As financial representatives from the world’s leading 20 industrial and developing nations gather for a meeting in Moscow this weekend, those concerns are being openly discussed.


“All the members of G20 need to deliver on a commitment to move towards a market-determined exchange rate and refrain from competitive devaluation,” U.S. Treasury Undersecretary Lael Brainard warned Friday.


Why is everyone talking about currencies?


— Since the start of the financial crisis, central banks around the world have been trying to stimulate their economies by keeping interest rates extremely low. The goal is to encourage consumers and businesses to borrow and spend more. One way central banks drive down rates is to use their power to print money to buy up large quantities of bonds. But by boosting the amount of currency in circulation, there is a side effect: it can drive down the value of that currency relative to others.


As a country’s currency falls, its exports become cheaper, while those of its neighbors become relatively more expensive.


Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, is currently under the harshest spotlight. To get its economy motoring again after a two-decade bout of stagnation, the government has said it would like to see inflation move higher. Markets have interpreted this as a signal that Japan’s central bank is prepared to take actions that would result in driving down the yen, to boost exports and also put upward pressure on prices. Earlier this week, the yen fell to a 21-month low against the dollar and a near three-year trough against the euro.


So is Japan actively trying to weaken the yen?


— Yes and no. Though it’s not directly intervening in the foreign exchange markets by selling yen and buying other currencies, strong comments from the new Japanese government have convinced markets that the Bank of Japan will create more money. Japan’s Finance Minister Taro Aso insists the government isn’t focused on exchange rates, but he has noted that the weakening yen has “brought huge benefits to the export sector” and that the world “has been awed” by the recent surge in share prices.


Why is that bad?


— A falling yen will help exporters, such as Sony and Toyota, and boost Japan’s economy. And it will it tend to push prices – and ultimately wages — higher. But if other countries respond to the falling yen by devaluing their currencies — to maintain the competitiveness of their own exports — Japan will be back to square one and the world economy could suffer.


Sharp fluctuations in the value of currencies can hurt business confidence and investment. Prices for imported raw materials and components would be volatile, profits will be hard to come by as prices fluctuate wildly and the value of any investment a company makes in another country could quickly be wiped out.


Who’s been feeling the effect of Japan’s actions so far?


— The euro, the single currency used by the 17-strong group of European Union countries, has seen the biggest move on the foreign exchange markets. As the region moved on from its crippling debt crisis last summer, the euro has slowly gained in value. But since the change of government in Japan, its value against leading currencies such as the yen and U.S. dollar has shot up — last December it was worth 113.19 yen and $ 1.29 and now it’s at 124.93 yen and $ 1.33.


A rise in the value of the euro will do little to help the eurozone’s businesses — and will hardly help getting it growing again. Figures Thursday showed that the economic output of the region shrank at an annualized rate of around 2.5 percent in the last quarter of 2012.


What’s been the reaction from other major economies?


— Politicians have voiced concerns about the euro’s rise versus other major currencies — most notably French President Francois Hollande, who indicated he was open to calls for a more managed exchange rate. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said last week that the bank will monitor the economic impact of the euro’s rising value. Several analysts took that to mean the ECB could cut interest rates to bolster growth, which in theory could weaken the euro — an indirect tit-for-tat response to the yen’s fall, some say.


Earlier this week, the volatility in the currency markets prompted the Group of Seven leading industrial nations, which includes the U.S, Germany as well as Japan, to warn that volatile movements in exchange rates could adversely hit the global economy. The group reaffirmed its commitment to market-driven exchange rates.


Might other countries try to manipulate their currencies in response to Japan?


— There is no sign of that — so far. Speaking in Moscow, International Monetary Fund Director Christine Lagarde dismissed the possibility of an international currency conflict, saying that “the current talk of currency war is overblown.”


But a country fixing the value of its currency is not without precedent.


In Sept. 2011, Switzerland took action to arrest the rise of its currency, the Swiss franc. The rise was triggered by the debt crisis in the eurozone — investors were looking for somewhere safe to park their cash and the Swiss franc has traditionally fulfilled that role. The Swiss intervention was viewed as an attempt to protect the country’s exporters.


U.S. politicians have for years accused China of keeping its currency, the renminbi, artificially weak in order to industrialize fast. And many countries believe the U.S. long ago abandoned the “strong dollar” policy in a dash for growth.


How bad could a currency war get?


— Since World War II, one of the key objectives of international economic policymaking has been to avoid a repeat of the 1930s, when countries around the world engaged in a tit-for-tat battle with their exchange rates. That decimated global trade, accentuating the depression and providing another catalyst to war.


Assuming the world doesn’t descend into a similar abyss, a currency war can still harm the global economy. For example, central banks, particularly in the developing world, may resort to controlling the amount of capital that can be moved out of a country to affect exchange rates.


“Increasing impediments to the free flow of capital might be thought to lower the potential growth of the world economy,” said Stephen Lewis, chief economist at Monument Securities.


Can the world’s leaders and central bankers calm the situation?


— No doubt, a communique will emerge from this weekend’s G-20 meeting in Moscow that pours scorn at competitive devaluations. Most of the action, though, is likely to take place behind-the-scenes with pressure expected to be put on the Japanese finance minister and central bank governor not to allow the yen to fall much further.


“Expect smoke and mirrors,” said Simon Evenett, a professor of economics at the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland and a former World Bank official. “It’s not the G-20′s style to point fingers.”


Economy News Headlines – Yahoo! News





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In Timbuktu, al-Qaida left behind a manifesto






TIMBUKTU, Mali (AP) — In their hurry to flee last month, al-Qaida fighters left behind a crucial document: Tucked under a pile of papers and trash is a confidential letter, spelling out the terror network’s strategy for conquering northern Mali and reflecting internal discord over how to rule the region.


The document is an unprecedented window into the terrorist operation, indicating that al-Qaida predicted the military intervention that would dislodge it in January and recognized its own vulnerability.






The letter also shows a sharp division within al-Qaida’s Africa chapter over how quickly and how strictly to apply Islamic law, with its senior commander expressing dismay over the whipping of women and the destruction of Timbuktu‘s ancient monuments. It moreover leaves no doubt that despite a temporary withdrawal into the desert, al-Qaida plans to operate in the region over the long haul, and is willing to make short-term concessions on ideology to gain the allies it acknowledges it needs.


The more than nine-page document, found by The Associated Press in a building occupied by the Islamic extremists for almost a year, is signed by Abu Musab Abdul Wadud, the nom de guerre of Abdelmalek Droukdel, the senior commander appointed by Osama bin Laden to run al-Qaida’s branch in Africa. The clear-headed, point-by-point assessment resembles a memo from a CEO to his top managers and lays out for his jihadists in Mali what they have done wrong in months past, and what they need to do to correct their behavior in the future.


Droukdel, the emir of al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, perhaps surprisingly argues that his fighters moved too fast and too brutally in applying the Islamic law known as Shariah to northern Mali. Comparing the relationship of al-Qaida to Mali as that of an adult to an infant, he urges them to be more gentle, like a parent:


“The current baby is in its first days, crawling on its knees, and has not yet stood on its two legs,” he writes. “If we really want it to stand on its own two feet in this world full of enemies waiting to pounce, we must ease its burden, take it by the hand, help it and support it until its stands.”


He scolds his fighters for being too forceful and warns that if they don’t ease off, their entire project could be thrown into jeopardy: “Every mistake in this important stage of the life of the baby will be a heavy burden on his shoulders. The larger the mistake, the heavier the burden on his back, and we could end up suffocating him suddenly and causing his death.”


The letter is divided into six chapters, three of which the AP recovered, along with loose pages, on the floor of the Ministry of Finance’s Regional Audit Department. Residents say the building, one of several the Islamic extremists took over in this ancient city of sundried, mud-brick homes, was particularly well-guarded with two checkpoints, and a zigzag of barriers at the entrance.


Droukdel’s letter is one of only a few internal documents between commanders of al-Qaida’s African wing that have been found, and possibly the first to be made public, according to University of Toulouse Islamic scholar Mathieu Guidere. It is numbered 33/234, a system reserved for al-Qaida’s internal communications, said Guidere, who helps oversee a database of documents generated by extremists, including Droukdel.


“This is a document between the Islamists that has never been put before the public eye,” said Guidere, who authenticated the letter after being sent a two-page sample. “It confirms something very important, which is the divisions about the strategic conception of the organization. There was a debate on how to establish an Islamic state in North Mali and how to apply Shariah.”


While the pages recovered are not dated, a reference to a conflict in June establishes that the message was sent at most eight months ago.


The tone and timing of the letter suggest that al-Qaida is learning from its mistakes in places like Somalia and Algeria, where attempts to unilaterally impose its version of Islam backfired. They also reflect the influence of the Arab Spring, which showed the power of people to break regimes, and turned on its head al-Qaida’s long-held view that only violence could bring about wholesale change, Guidere said.


The letter suggests a change in the thinking, if not the rhetoric, of Droukdel, who is asking his men to behave with a restraint that he himself is not known for. Droukdel is believed to have overseen numerous suicide bombings, including one in 2007 where al-Qaida fighters bombed the United Nations building and a new government building in Algiers, killing 41 people. The same year, the U.S. designated him a global terrorist and banned Americans from doing business with him.


In a video disseminated on jihadist forums a few months ago, Droukdel dared the French to intervene in Mali and said his men will turn the region into a “graveyard” for foreign fighters, according to a transcript provided by Washington-based SITE Intelligence.


The fanaticism he exhibits in his public statements is in stark contrast to the advice he gives his men on the ground. In his private letter, he acknowledges that al-Qaida is vulnerable to a foreign intervention, and that international and regional pressure “exceeds our military and financial and structural capability for the time being.”


“It is very probable, perhaps certain, that a military intervention will occur … which in the end will either force us to retreat to our rear bases or will provoke the people against us,” writes Droukdel. “Taking into account this important factor, we must not go too far or take risks in our decisions or imagine that this project is a stable Islamic state.”


According to his own online biography, Droukdel was born 44 years ago into a religious family in the Algerian locality of Zayan. He says he enrolled into the technology department of a local university before turning to jihad, and his first job was making explosives for Algerian mujahedeen. In 2006, the group to which he belonged, known as the GSPC, became an arm of al-Qaida, after negotiations with Ayman al-Zawahri, bin Laden’s lieutenant.


As Droukdel rose through the ranks, he came into direct contact with bin Laden, Guidere said.


In the document found in Timbuktu, he cites a letter he received from bin Laden about the al-Hudaybiyah deal, a treaty signed circa 628 by the Prophet Muhammad and the Quraish tribe of Mecca, an agreement with non-Muslims that paved the way for Muslims to return to Mecca.


“The smart Muslim leader would do these kinds of concessions in order to achieve the word of God eventually and to support the religion,” he says.


Perhaps the biggest concession Droukdel urges is for his fighters to slow down in implementing Shariah.


When the Islamic extremists took over northern Mali 10 months ago, they restored order in a time of chaos, much as the Taliban did in Afghanistan, and even created a hotline number for people to report crimes. But whatever goodwill they had built up evaporated when they started to destroy the city’s historic monuments, whip women for not covering up and amputate the limbs of suspected thieves.


“One of the wrong policies that we think you carried out is the extreme speed with which you applied Shariah, not taking into consideration the gradual evolution that should be applied in an environment that is ignorant of religion,” Droukdel writes. “Our previous experience proved that applying Shariah this way, without taking the environment into consideration, will lead to people rejecting the religion, and engender hatred toward the mujahedeen, and will consequently lead to the failure of our experiment.”


Droukdel goes on to cite two specific applications of Shariah that he found problematic. He criticizes the destruction of Timbuktu’s World Heritage-listed shrines, because, as he says, “on the internal front we are not strong.” He also tells the fighters he disapproves of their religious punishment for adulterers — stoning to death — and their lashing of people, “and the fact that you prevented women from going out, and prevented children from playing, and searched the houses of the population.”


“Your officials need to control themselves,” he writes.


Droukdel’s words reflect the division within one of al-Qaida’s most ruthless affiliates, and may explain why Timbuktu, under the thumb of al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, experienced a slightly less brutal version of Shariah than Gao, one of the three other major cities controlled by the extremists. There was only one amputation in Timbuktu over their 10-month rule, compared to a dozen or more in Gao, a city governed by an al-Qaida offshoot, MUJAO, which does not report to Droukdel.


Droukdel’s warning of rejection from locals also turned out to be prescient, as Shariah ran its course in Timbuktu. The breaking point, residents say, was the day last June when the jihadists descended on the cemetery with pickaxes and shovels and smashed the tombs of their saints, decrying what they called the sin of idolatry.


Many in Timbuktu say that was the point of no return. “When they smashed our mausoleums, it hurt us deeply,” said Alpha Sanechirfi, the director of the Malian Office of Tourism in Timbuktu. “For us, it was game over.”


Droukdel’s letter also urges his followers to make concessions to win over other groups in the area, and in one case criticizes their failure to do so. For several months, the Islamic extremists controlling northern Mali coexisted with the secular National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad, or NMLA, the name given to Mali by Tuareg rebels who want their own state. The black flag of the extremists fluttered alongside the multi-colored one of the secular rebels, each occupying different areas of the towns.


In late May, the two sides attempted to sign a deal, agreeing to create an independent Islamic state called Azawad. The agreement between the bon vivant Tuareg rebels and the Taliban-inspired extremists seemed doomed from the start. It fell apart days later. By June, the Islamic extremists had chased the secular rebels out of northern Mali’s main cities.


“The decision to go to war against the Azawad Liberation Movement, after becoming close and almost completing a deal with them, which we thought would be positive, is a major mistake in our assessment,” Droukdel admonishes. “This fighting will have a negative impact on our project. So we ask you to solve the issue and correct it by working toward a peace deal.”


In an aside in brackets, Droukdel betrays the frustration of a manager who has not been informed of important decisions taken by his employees: “(We have not until now received any clarification from you, despite how perilous the operation was!!)”


Droukdel also discusses the nuts and bolts of how territory and control might be shared by al-Qaida and the local radical Islamic group known as Ansar Dine, or Defenders of the Faith. For much of last year, Ansar Dine claimed to be the rulers of both Timbuktu and Kidal, although by the end, there was mounting evidence that al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb was calling the shots.


The reason for this is now clear in his letter: Droukdel asks his men to lower their profile, and allow local groups to take center stage.


“We should also take into consideration not to monopolize the political and military stage. We should not be at the forefront,” he says. “Better for you to be silent and pretend to be a ‘domestic’ movement that has its own causes and concerns. There is no reason for you to show that we have an expansionary, jihadi, al-Qaida or any other sort of project.”


The emir acknowledges that his fighters live on the fringes of society, and urges them to make alliances, including fixing their broken relationship with the NMLA. He vows that if they do what he says, they will have succeeded, even if an eventual military intervention forces them out of Mali.


“The aim of building these bridges is to make it so that our mujahedeen are no longer isolated in society,” he writes. “If we can achieve this positive thing in even a limited amount, then even if the project fails later, it will be just enough that we will have planted the first, good seed in this fertile soil and put pesticides and fertilizer on it, so that the tree will grow more quickly. We look forward to seeing this tree as it will be eventually: Stable and magnificent.”


___


Associated Press writer Baba Ahmed in Timbuktu, Mali, and the Associated Press News Research Center contributed to this report.


Africa News Headlines – Yahoo! News





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